Results of the New Election and What it Means

To recap briefly, the 2019 Canadian federal election was held on Monday, October 21, 2019, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 43rd Canadian Parliament. Elections Canada began publishing live preliminary results shortly after 7:00 p.m (Eastern Time) on that same day. 

It turns out Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wins a second term, but loses majority. The Liberal party secures 157 seats, 13 short to forming a majority government. Falling short of a majority means Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party would have to rely on other opposition parties to pass any legislation. 

Meanwhile, the Conservatives continue to be the official opposition by winning the most votes, some 34.4 per cent compared to Liberal’s 33.1 per cent, and yet oddly enough, not the most seats (121 seats). More votes but fewer seats? Surely you’re joking. Well, this has happened before, and the last time it happened was in the 1979 federal election. The reason behind this seemingly unfair and undemocratic phenomenon, is votes can accumulate and end up wasted. The Liberal Party perfectly showcase how to win the election when there’s a dead heat in national support: that is to win constituencies small and lose constituencies big. 

On the other hand, Bloc Québécois can be considered the biggest winner of this election. They only had 10 seats in 2015, and now they triple their seats, coming to 32. 

So what does a Liberal minority government means for Canada?

1. The carbon tax most likely will stay in place. 

Liberals will receive plenty of support to maintain the current carbon pricing system (both the Bloc Québécois and New Democrat are in favor of a carbon tax).

2.  Single-use plastic ban

The Liberals have already released a proposed federal ban of ‘harmful’ single-use plastics which could come into effect as early as 2021.

No major opposition is expected.

3. Albertans aren’t satisfied

The Conservatives won every single seat in Alberta and Saskatchewan except for one. Albertans truly feel they are excluded from Justin Trudeau and his Canada. 

4. The Trans Mountain pipeline debate is unlikely to re-open in Parliament

It is difficult to see much if any upside from re-opening this debate, given the Trans Mountain Expansion Project is already approved. The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion has been a key issue in two federal election cycles, and although it’s already approved, the Liberals still need to find $10 to $15 billion to build this pipeline.